Barnes, Quickley extensions increase urgency for roster improvement
2024-25 should be the last season for a while where expectations will be low
Happy NBA Free Agency Day!
The most pleasing part of this day for Raptors fans has to be knowing there’s nothing to be stressed about with regards to point guard of the present and now future Immanuel Quickley.
Toronto’s two best players in Scottie Barnes (five years, $225M - $270M) and Quickley (five years, $175M) being reportedly inked to long-term extensions means that it’s all about re-tooling and tinkering going forward.
Having RJ Barrett and Gradey Dick on the books through the 2026-27 season as well as Jakob Poeltl through the 2025-26 season brings a sense of solidity to what I like to refer to as the extended core. Ja’Kobe Walter should figure into this equation and I’d like to think the same of Jonathan Mogbo. We shall really have to wait and see what becomes of Jamal Shead and Ulrich Chomche.
As a transactional update, Bruce Brown Jr.’s team option was also reportedly picked up and so he has $23M on the books for next season. The main loose ends remaining as far as free agency is concered is Gary Trent Jr and using the non-tax payer mid-level exception. I think Trent Jr.’s definitely worth bringing back on a one or two-year deal that’s a bit of an overpay or a real bargain of a four-year deal.
For this post, I want to focus on the key questions surrounding the Barnes and Quickley extensions:
IS THE BARNES EXTENSION FAIR VALUE?
First things first, it’s important to remind people that it is a designated rookie max extension for Barnes, which is a bit different from a regular or veteran super max.
For example, with his seven years of service, Jayson Tatum is eligible for an extension worth $315M over five years this summer. Tatum is now a five-time All-Star, has earned four All-NBA selections, and is an NBA champion. For those wondering, his previous extension came when he was a one-time All-Star and one-time All-NBA’er and was worth five years and $163M guaranteed, going up to $195M. That difference between Tatum’s extension then and Barnes’ extension now is due to the salary cap being set at $109.1M going into 2020-21 and the 2025-26 cap — when Barnes’ extension kicks in— expected to be in excess of $150M (it’s at $141M heading into 2024-25).
While Barnes and Tatum are very different players, those accolades are the type of ascension Masai Ujiri & co. will be hoping for with this deal. Some of what you pay for in this contract before the contract is hope and potential. You are paying — to an extent — for what you believe a player will be in the years to come.
Barnes was selected to his first all-star team last season and the defensive strides he made were extremely encouraging. He’s growing as a leader, too. All the organization’s actions and words indicate they believe he can be a 1A category player. It’s an incredibly difficult level to get to, and even Tatum received his fair share of doubt that he can be that calibre of player as recently as this season with the Celtics romping to the title.
Ultimately, Barnes’ first three years has made him worth betting on with this extension. There are no future guarantees but all signs where we stand in 2024 point to this deal and this money needing to be put on the table to keep Barnes a happy man in Toronto.
IS THE QUICKLEY EXTENSION FAIR VALUE?
Perhaps the first question on people’s minds with regards to Quickley’s reported contract is whether he was actually going to command that money in the open market as a restricted free agent? If so, couldn’t the Raptors just wait and see before matching accordingly?
Four teams could have potentially tried to entice Quickley in that range: Detroit, Orlando, Utah, and San Antonio (The Sixers have room but already have Maxey). Toronto’s offer came in at about 21% of the salary cap, four percent less than the 25% maximum he was eligible for. Considering the reality that losing Quickley would be an unmitigated disaster, why not make a great offer that’s still less than the max to make sure he has nothing else to consider?
In 38 games as a Raptors, Quickley averaged 18.6 points, 6.8 assists, 4.8 rebounds and just under a steal while shooting 39.5% from three. He just turned 25 a couple weeks ago and he should be competing for an all-star spot throughout his prime. With how intentional Toronto has been with Quickley, they view him as a surefire all-star and a possible superstar. I currently view him as a fringe all-star and so probably would have preferred to see if a deal could be worked out around $150M or less. As stated earlier, though, you absolutely had to bring him back.
Worth keeping in mind is that relationship building is a crucial part of the NBA. With someone who is viewed as the second-most important piece of the puzzle, the Raptors organization has done everything to ensure that Quickley knows he is genuinely beloved here in Toronto. Showing him the money and giving him no reason to even think about the grass potentially being greener on the other side is a great way to cement the relationship.
You may recall that he took some time away from the team late last season due to the passing of his uncle Shawn Hamilton and the Raptors sent about 12 members of the organization to attend the funeral.
“Love is an action, not just words,” Quickley said about the show of support at a practice that followed. “It’s not just something you say, it’s something you do and they’ve definitely shown that.”
OPTIMAL ON-COURT BUILD AROUND SCOTTIE & QUICK?
Here’s the tricky part. With Barnes and Quickley secured, nailing this rebuild is about putting the right pieces around him and successfully navigating the machinations of the new salary cap restrictions.
I think you have to approach building around Barnes like you would building around LeBron James. You want to have plenty of spacing around him, a genuine ball handler who with scoring pop (Hello, Immanuel), wing players who can defend on-ball so he can excel in a free safety/backline role, and a big who can ideally stretch the floor to an extent but if not has roll gravity and can play some bully ball inside.
Quickley is certainly a box ticked at one guard position, but Gary Trent Jr. isn’t — if he returns. The Raptors version of RJ Barrett is enticing, but the defence needs to see marked improvement.
Where does Jakob Poeltl stand? If you had to draw up a perfect centre for Barnes and Quickley, it’d probably be someone who can space the floor, defend exceedingly well, but also be a very good passer while providing his own scoring relief. Poeltl is a good passer, can defend the rim very well, and has real gravity as a roller to the rim. It would be nice if he had a bit more of an expanded offensive package, but he’s by no means a bad option alongside those two at least in the short term.
WHY DOES REBUILD NEED TO ACCELERATE?
With the reported value of the extensions, it means that Toronto is going to be above the salary cap but under the luxury tax as soon as next season. As a result, you want to recognize opportunities to thread the needle and improve the bench as soon as possible.
Trading for Davion Mitchell and Sasha Vezenkov is a marginal step in that direction. It has become imperative that the Raptors get back to hitting on their late draft picks/non-draft picks like they did with Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Fred VanVleet. One can only hope there can be this era’s trade version of Greivis Vasquez for Anunoby and Norman Powell.
The pain of the Pascal Siakam trade is more real now, as successfully trading away your star player is the best way to accelerate a rebuild. The Raptors currently have Ja’Kobe Walter, Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynk, Ochai Agbaji, and a 2026 first-round pick from the Pacers to show for it. Three of those players are unlikely to figure into the Raptors’ equation by the time Toronto uses that 2026 pick.
Even losing Fred VanVleet for nothing hurts in this regard.
All that happens around the margins will play a big role in determining how long Barnes and Quickley as the core duo is actually tenable. Are you a top six team? Are you a Play-In team? When you look at the NBA landscape now, it’s so clear how much depth matters. Six different champions in six different seasons is no coincidence and the Celtics built a team where there was no real weak link.
The Nuggets got nothing outside of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in Game 7 and it burned them. The likes of PJ Washington and Jaden McDaniels were such huge X-Factors. If Barnes and Quickley are worthy of being top tier players, it’s how well Ujiri, Webster, and co. return to their bread and butter of drafting and developing players that will get the Raptors back on track.