Does Trent Jr. have a future with the Raptors?

The best fit next to Scottie, IQ, RJ, and Jak is TBD

Photo credit: Eric Hartline (USA Today Sports)

As the Toronto Raptors dig deeper into silly season, it’s an open invitation to delve into the burning questions of this upcoming off-season.

For this week’s post, I figured it’s the perfect time to take a look at unrestricted free agent-to-be Gary Trent Jr. and assess his fit and future with the organization.

Trent Jr. has been playing really good basketball of late. In the month of March, the 25-year-old has averaged 21.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.8 steals while shooting 36.6% on 9.1 three-point attempts per game (his 3PT% took a hit on Saturday after going 1-for-7 while dealing with back soreness). Being the shoot-first (and second and third) guard he is, Trent Jr. has also only turned the ball over three times in nine games this month. The steal numbers are encouraging, as his ball pressure is what made him passable on that end of the floor in the 2021-22 season where the Raptors defence was hell-bent on creating turnovers.

As far as development over the course of his Raptors tenure is concerned, though, it’s hard to say Trent Jr. has added much to his on-court game since first arriving in Tampa. By today’s standards, he’s a very good shooter capable of great stretches, has flashes of being a net-neutral defender, and is a thorough professional with spectacular fashion sense.

All that has added up to General Manager Bobby Webster saying that the organization is “TBD” on whether or not Trent Jr, an impending free agent, fits in with the new core of Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett. He fits the timeline as a 25-year-old, offers the theoretical floor spacing needed around Barnes, but beyond that? To be determined.

In assessing whether Trent Jr. should have a future with this team, I want to look at his fit with the core and direction of the team moving forward along with what type of contract would be fair value, as well as look back and ask if the Norman Powell trade was worth it.

WHAT IS TRENT JR.’S FIT?

No, this is not a fashion question. There’s nothing to question with Trent Jr. or the entire Trent family in that regard.

When looking at the Raptors’ ideal starting five for next season, you expect Barnes, Quickley, Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl to feature. The question over that fifth piece of the puzzle currently starts with Trent Jr.

Trent Jr. has played with that quartet for 164 minutes (the second-most minutes for any Raptors lineup) this season, the lineup producing a plus-10.3 net rating. When Barnes and Poeltl are on the court together and you combine that with Barrett’s curling drives going right to left as well as Quickley’s gravity and dribble penetration, Trent Jr.’s fit on the offensive side of the ball as a floor spacer is obvious.

What is surprising, at least to me, is that this unit managed a 109.2 defensive rating. For perspective, the Minnesota Timberwolves boast the league’s best defence and their best starting five of Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert allows 109.7 points per-100 possessions. Boston’s starting five of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayston Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis has a defensive rating of 109.1.

The big caveat here is that those two units have a sample size of 610 and 554 minutes, respectively, nearly four times the size of the Raptors’ sample. The Toronto five-man unit in question started eight games between Feb. 2 and Mar. 1 against the Thunder, Hornets, Rockets, Cavaliers, Spurs, Pacers, Mavericks, and Warriors until Barnes got hurt. It really is a shame we couldn’t see more of that unit together to have more concrete takeaways.

Below are a few clips of both Trent Jr. being a disruptor as well as how impactful Poeltl and Barnes can be protecting the rim when opponents create paint touches.

My ideal fifth player would be a more stout, switchable perimeter defender than Trent Jr. (that’s part of why I’m intrigued by Ochai Agbaji) but what has worked well with this group is Poeltl and Barnes’ rim protection negating some a lot of the dribble penetration that the other three concede. Having a very efficient offence also helps defend in the half-court as much as possible.

Based on the potential of those eight games, there’s enough reason to see Trent Jr. at least as a stop-gap solution for the next season or two at the right price. That also helps Gradey Dick continue to develop in a bench role as he continues to work his body to NBA-level strength. Barrett’s plausibility as a go-to defender was questionable during his time with the New York Knicks and that’s the one aspect of his tenure there that has carried over to the Raptors. What Barrett nets out at as a defender will have a huge bearing on how good a defender Toronto needs next to him and Quickley.

WAS THE POWELL TRADE WORTH IT?

Before I get to the juicy part of this exercise and what Trent Jr.’s possible extension should look like from a Raptors perspective, I want to look back on the trade that brought him to Tampa and then Toronto.

The reason I ask this question now is because I’m generally not a fan of immediately evaluating a trade because so much of it is supposed to be based on what happens in the future. Yes, one element is evaluating what was done based on the information that was available at the time, but assessing the deal now gives us a better idea of how effectively that information was considered and acted upon.

Now, three seasons removed from the deal that sent Norman Powell to Portland in exchange for Trent Jr and Rodney Hood, I feel we’re in a good — even if still not optimal — place to evaluate the deal (whether or not the Raptors retain Trent Jr. this summer and how much he re-signs for if he stays/who replaces him will influence how this trade is viewed as well).

One of the primary reasons for the deal was monetary, the other being able to reset the clock with a similar profile player but at a younger age. The expectation was that Powell would command a higher salary than Trent Jr. in the unrestricted market (Trent Jr. was a restricted free agent) and make balancing the books in the future more complicated.

In the 2020 off-season, VanVleet signed an extension worth $85M over four years while Anunoby was retained for four years at $72M. It’s hard to believe Powell’s contract would have had a higher ceiling than either of those deals. In the end, Trent Jr. has actually made slightly more money over the past three seasons than Powell and none of VanVleet, Anunoby or Siakam are around.

On the court, Trent Jr. has generally played his best basketball as a starter while struggling coming off the bench. Powell was the opposite for much of his tenure as a Raptor before it all started to click in 2019-20. Both players have their deficiencies defensively, but Powell is certainly the more complete scorer with his ability to attack the basket and create rim pressure combined with his superior shooting efficiency.

For most of his career, Powell’s rim frequency has hovered around and above 35%. The 20% mark this season is the lowest of his career, and it can largely be attributed to having even more of a specific spacing role with James Harden in town and much less to do off the bounce. That reduced volume has also increased his efficiency at the basket to a career-best 68% shooting within four feet of the basket. Trent Jr., on the other hand, has never hit the 20% mark in rim frequency and, frankly, there’d be a lot of sore eyes in Toronto if we had to watch him try and finish at the basket more often (57% this season).

Off the court, Trent Jr. has been a consummate professional who has accepted whatever role has been assigned to him and has by all accounts been a good teammate. I think it would be fair to call Powell more of a vocal leader, and there was a tangible nature to his grind that could have been an added leadership piece the last few years. I believe the leadership Powell brought to the Raptors, especially after the championship season, was an underrated component of what he brought to the table and has certainly been missed.

Overall, Trent Jr. is a decent role player and a quality pro but the Raptors have some work ahead of them in validating the reasons for the trade. That brings us to what should follow.

WHAT NEXT?

Trent Jr.’s long-term fit is TBD. As of today, he’s definitely not a starter on a contender and likely nets out as a below-average starter on a playoff team. His offensive package is fairly one-dimensional to this point and his defence is largely dependent on gambling for steals. It’s in where the Raptors are now and project to be next season, along with the potential of that five-man unit mentioned previously, that a pathway to an extension exists.

The mid-level next season would be around $12M, which would represent a notable decrease from Trent Jr.’s salary this season. Teams are also much more prudent in its contract negotiations because of the ramifications of the new CBA and the second apron. For a player that hasn’t shown much growth from when he first arrived three years ago, this is not your typical scenario where you would need to bake in the potential of a 25-year-old.

Last summer, Gabe Vincent signed a three-year, $33M deal with the Lakers after a strong playoff run with the Miami Heat. Caris LeVert is injury prone but a more complete player than Trent Jr. and signed for $32M over two years. The last example I’ll provide here is Max Strus, who signed a four-year, $62M deal with Cleveland.

I see little reason for the Raptors to go well beyond the mid-level for Trent Jr. when he has yet to prove himself a long-term fit. If Toronto has to overpay a bit for a shorter term, then so be it. Trent Jr.’s previous contract was for three years, $52M but I think the Raptors should ideally be looking at a three year, $36-42M deal or two-year, $26-30M this time around. If you’re going to splurge, look at the likes of Malik Monk or Grayson Allen.

If the Raptors can get Trent Jr. for around the mid-level on a two or three-year deal, then the goals of the Powell trade in creating a longer bridge with a younger player of a similar profile at a lower cost will have been accomplished. Powell is making close to $40M over the next two seasons, and whether it’s through Trent Jr. or another player who slots into that shooting guard role, monitoring the cost and quality of player will be the final part of evaluating the trade.

7 DAYS

Toronto has now lost 10 straight games, dropping to 23-48 on the season and is now a full game worse than Memphis for the sixth-best lottery odds. The fifth-best odds are pretty much out of the question with Portland four games worse than Toronto with 11 games to play.

I’ve proclaimed myself the president of the Ochai Agbaji fan club and he had his best pair of games as a Raptor yet over the weekend. Beyond the box score, Agbaji defended really well, especially in transition, is a good offensive rebounder, and consistently makes smart cuts. His eight assists across the two games flashed some of his potential in making the right pass off what he was reading from the defence. His three-point shooting is leaving plenty to be desired (24% as a Raptor after coming in at 35.7% for his career) and I’d also like to see him not be so rushed around the basket. He has too much strength and bounce to be as poor of a finisher at the basket as he’s been so far (63% as a Raptor which is 50th percentile as a wing, per Cleaning the Glass).

Gradey Dick also had a pair of encouraging games against the Thunder and Wizards, finishing with a combined 38 points and seven threes on 15 attempts. It was particularly good to see after seemingly suffering from the toll of starter minutes for a few games prior.