Draft Prep 2nd Edition: The Big Fit Debates

Scouting Knuepell, Demin, Essengue, Murray-Boyles

Just like that, the Oklahoma City Thunder are one win away from winning the NBA championship.

What. A. Series. Barring Game 2, every game has had us on the edge of our seats or pacing up and down (pardon the pun) our viewing area. It’s really too bad about Tyrese Haliburton’s calf but I still think the Pacers will make the Thunder fight tooth and nail in Game 6.

As good as the series has been, distractions are abound. The Desmond Bane trade was a doozy and elevates the Orlando Magic into possibly being a home court advantage team next season. Bane addresses a major need on the offensive end with more than just his three-point shooting and he’s a capable defender.

What happens with Kevin Durant? It looks like we’ll have an answer within a week or so. I do think trades shouldn’t be allowed during the playoffs. The NBA Finals is not getting the showcase treatment it deserves right now because of these sideline rumours and deals.

Moving on to what is front and centre for the Toronto Raptors, let’s get into draft talk. We’re only a week away!

Here’s my updated mock draft estimate:

At this stage, it appears increasingly likely that the Philadelphia 76ers will opt for VJ Edgecombe at No. 3 ahead of Ace Bailey. The latter’s stock is increasingly declining because of some attitude concerns. There is also speculation that we could see a record number of picks traded on draft day so we’ll have to wait and see which teams move up and down the draft ladder.

An important bit of information we now know is that 19 of the 24 green room invitations for the draft have been sent:

• Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe, Ace Bailey

• Tre Johnson, Kon Knueppel, Jeremiah Fears, Khaman Maluach

• Derik Queen, Kasparas Jakucionis, Carter Bryant, Noa Essengue

• Egor Demin, Collin Murray-Boyles, Liam McNeeley, Thomas Sorber

• Nolan Traore, Asa Newell, Will Riley

Based on my mock draft estimate, the two names missing in the “Top 19” are Nique Clifford, Cedric Coward and Jase Richardson. Again, there are 24 invites that get sent in total so the real surprise will be if the first two names mentioned don’t make the final cut.

In the case of Jase Richardson, it’s believed his stock is falling because he measured at six feet without shoes at the draft combine and isn’t being viewed as a pure point guard.

Canadian Will Riley (Kitchener, ON native) is 24th in my estimate but has risen three spots relative to a week ago. The 19-year-old 6-foot-8 forward spent one year at Illinois and looks certain to be a first-round pick now. Good for him!

Let’s get to this week’s scouting report:

Kon Knueppel

An absolute knock-down shooter. I could well be wrong here with the league being so skill oriented now but I don’t think he has starter potential and feel his best case scenario is an eighth or ninth man on a playoff team.

Some have made the Austin Reaves comparison. I think Reaves is more athletic and that’s a big differentiator at the NBA level. It’s going to leave him with a lot to work on in terms of being a legitimate shot creator and playmaker. Even with Reaves, we saw difficulty going up against the Wolves’ strength and athleticism with the added physicality of the playoffs.

Defensively, he may be best following the JJ Redick template. Redick was never a great 1-on-1 defender but worked to become a respectable team defender and picked up opposing offensive concepts well to position himself well. He has more of a stocky build than a rangy, athletic one.

Raptors Fit: While his outside shooting would be an asset on this roster, there is no more room for an ill-equipped guard defender with Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Gradey Dick on the roster.

Draft expectation: It is extremely unlikely that Knueppel will be available at No. 9. Combined with the less than ideal fit, it didn’t make much sense for me to scout him extensively.

Egor Demin

He has become the consensus best passer in the draft class. One of the things that stands out when watching his film is just how easily he reads strong side to weak side swing pass opportunities. Being 6-foot-9 is obviously a big factor in doing so but what I also like is how he times his passes.

There seems to be a clear understanding of when it’s good to pass early because of an overcommit or when to take a dribble or two extra towards the paint to attract more attention to create a more open shot. He functioned quite well with a lob threat in the pick-and-roll or even in identifying opportunities for the big when defences shade over to a three-point threat.

In terms of his individual offence, he doesn’t have great burst or general quickness. It helps to have those long strides with his frame but his handle stands to improve as well. As with anyone his size, the challenge lies in keeping a low dribble. Does that mean he may not be suited for being the primary ball handler at the NBA level? I think that will have a big say in his ceiling.

Getting all the way to the basket is more about his hesitation, head feints, and ball fakes. He is someone who does look to finish strong when he gains a head of steam so that’s encouraging.

The shooting is a long way from being adequate. He shot 27.3 percent on threes and 69.5 percent at the free throw line. I don’t know if it’s a good thing that his shooting stroke is decent and so there should be room to grow or a bad thing that his mechanics are solid and the numbers are so bad. It’s too early in his career to make a definitive conclusion.

Defensively, because of the lack of quickness, he’s someone who will have to defend small forwards and some shooting guards. This is where things can get a little bit complicated in terms of identifying his fit. You want to maximize his ball handling but he’ll need time to develop as a primary ball handler and defensively he’s not well suited for “his” position.

Raptors fit: As good as his playmaking is, the lack of shooting on the Raptors roster makes him a tough sell. I think he will be a good player for a team with the makeup of a Bulls or Hawks or even a rebuilding one like the Nets.

Draft expectation: I think he will end up getting drafted by one of the Bulls or Hawks at 12 or 13.

Noa Essengue

What an interesting prospect. Some see him with real star potential, others are lower. The answer? Watching the film I see why people are intrigued. His physical measures combined with his mobility tease a little bit of a very young Giannis Antetokounmpo. Remember, Antetokounmpo was once a very skinny kid. It’s probably a good reminder of just how much work the two-time MVP put in to become one of the all-time greats.

As far as running the floor is concerned, I can see a bit of Pascal Siakam in him in the way he identifies run out opportunities and beats players down the floor. The shooting stroke looks decent when he has time. I’m not sure there’s too much to take from what he can do in a 1-on-1 setting and so would definitely see him being most effective in transition during the early stages of his career.

Defensively, Essengue can cover a lot of space in very little time. I saw one comparison to Tayshaun Prince on this side of the ball and thought that was very interesting. He should be capable of defending four positions at the NBA level but centre will come down to how effectively he bulks up over the years.

For every Paul George there is a Jonathan Bender. For every Karl-Anthony Towns there is an Anthony Bennett. Essengue’s athleticism stands out in the film but we have to keep in mind that he is also going up against a German league level of athleticism. He’s also extremely young going up against grown men so that has to be factored in.

Betting on good seeds of potential to translate into a sturdy, healthy plant comes down to what’s in between the ears.

Raptors fit: With Maluach likely to be gone, this is definitely one of the players Toronto can take a swing at eyeing big time potential. Is there “bust” potential, possibly. The same way me knowing nothing about him personally leaves the ceiling unkown, it turns back the other way too when thinking of his floor. I do think there’s enough to believe the floor should be that of a serviceable role player.

Draft expectation: If not Toronto, I could see the Bulls at #12 or the Thunder at #15 taking a flyer on him. If you’re Oklahoma City, picking someone like him makes the most sense if he falls that far.

Collin Murray-Boyles

The next Draymond Green? That’s the word on the street when it comes to Murray-Boyles (CMB). He’s a lefty with tremendous defensive potential but plenty of question marks offensively.

As far as Green comparisons go, I do see the similarities when defending the interior. There’s plenty of video showing CMB blow up plays in the middle of the floor and put up a strong rearguard on the interior. It’s on the outside where I think the comparison ends. CMB has to become a much better perimeter defender against smaller players. He can definitely be blown by regularly and that will come down to improving his lateral quickness.

Offensively, there’s no real jumper to rely upon and that’s far from ideal at his size. Remember, Green gets to play with Steph Curry. So much of a player’s success comes down to fit and CMB screams of someone who will really need the right team to pick him in order to have a solid career. He can score in the post and is most comfortable getting to his left shoulder but post up touches are bordering on famine these days.

Raptors fit: You have Barnes so why Murray-Boyles? I don’t see the fit here at all and would much rather go with a taller centre at the very least. There are even other wings or guards who will prove better fits.

Draft expectation: Again, I could see the Thunder at 15 taking a swing at a player like him. Their identity is their defence and CMB could slot into that quite nicely. As far as fit is concerned, I could see him slotting next to Kel’el Ware pretty nice if the Heat wanted to move on from Bam Adebayo and enter a full rebuild.

Here’s how I rank the prospects I’ve scouted through the first two Draft Prep editions based on the Raptors’ needs:

1. Khaman Maluach

2. Carter Bryant

3. Jeremiah Fears

4. Noa Essengue

5. Derik Queen

6. Egor Demin

7. Kon Knueppel

8. Kasparas Jakucionis

9. Collin Murray-Boyles

My next piece will focus on the players who can be good fits but the Raptors may need to consider trading down for: Thomas Sorber, Cedric Coward, Nolan Traore, Asa Newell, Joan Beringer.

Raptors Rumours

Kudos if you’ve made it this far, here’s the latest buzz surrounding the team:

• Marc Stein reported that the Raptors are looking increasingly likely to trade down from their No. 9 pick. Because of the belief that they most covet Khaman Maluach and the expectation that he won’t be around at #9, the team may see their best interests in reaching out to teams with multiple first round picks. For example, the Hawks own the 13th and 22nd picks while the Thunder own the 15th and 24th. The Pelicans just completed a trade with the Pacers that sees them hold the 7th and 23rd overall selections.

• Among the projected first round picks who have recently worked out for the Raptors are Nolan Traore, Tre Johnson, Derik Queen, Jase Richardson, and Collin Murray-Boyles.

• More than I believe the Kevin Durant rumours, R.J. Barrett is quite clearly being shopped around to see what level of star he can net. Attaching the ninth pick and perhaps even Jakob Poeltl could create a pathway to a legitimate star.

• While not shocked, I am a bit surprised that Immanuel Quickley’s name has surfaced in trade rumours. He provides an extremely unique skillset to the team and so one would have to imagine it’s a “Big Fish” if Quickley is involved.

Notes

• Sean Woodley is taking paternal leave and so I am stepping in to host the Locked On Raptors podcast in his absence. Below is Tuesday’s episode with Sportsnet’s Blake Murphy where we zoomed in on Brandon Ingram’s potential impact:

• Lastly, as a thank you for reading and subscribing to this Substack, I have gifted five of you access to the NBA Big Board Substack by Rafael Barlowe. Barlowe is one of the best out there in the scouting game and so if you’re looking for some deeper insight you can use his Substack free for a month. Appreciate y’all!