Getting silly before the real silly season
Are you worried the tank is in trouble?
Break out the pizza, the Toronto Raptors have won five out of six!
It’s been a looong week juggling the Australian Open along with my regular NBA duties and so I had to take a break from the thing that doesn’t pay me: this newsletter.
It’s back to regularly scheduled programming from here but looking back on the week I wanted to touch on just a few key points of discussion:
Barnes Teasing All-NBA Level
We’ve talked about the main thing needing to be the main thing at this stage of the season and despite the absence of Immanuel Quickley, it’s great to see Barnes playing at this level.
His scoring has really come on as he’s got increasingly comfortable in the mid-range, the clutch factor against Atlanta in Thursday’s game was fantastic, and the defence over the last while has been truly elite.
Barnes will always look his best on the backline where he can use his anticipation and rim protection skills to great effect. What’s stood out over the last while is how impressive he’s looked when tasked with defending the perimeter.
Coming into this season, I’ve felt that he’s gotten too tight on players faster than him and as a result gave up blow-bys far too frequently. I think he’s given himself more room to work with this season, but there also seems to be improved lateral quickness relative to years past. He’s understanding how his length can deter passing angles defending the pick-and-roll and making like difficult for the ball handler.
This is a level that, were it not for where the Raptors are in the standings, would put him in the All-NBA Third Team conversation.
What’s With All The Tankers Winning?
The Portland Trail Blazers have won four of five games. The Charlotte Hornets have won four of their last six games, as have the New Orleans Pelicans. Now, the Raptors have won five of their last six.
Talk about putting up a united front. It’s easier to go into full compete mode when you know you’re not losing much ground in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. The Raptors have the fifth-worst record in the league now but are still within two games of second-worst. Having this stretch is really good for morale and keeping overall spirits up the rest of the way.
Now I know some of you will be starting to get back on the, ‘Hey, maybe they’re too good to tank!’ wagon again. Having the weakest strength of schedule the rest of the way will only further boost those claims.
I acknowledge the math on the schedule, I’d just be mindful of how and when these “easy” games are played. New Orleans, Washington, and Chicago are next, all winnable games. After that, here’s what you’re looking at sandwiched around the All-Star break:
How many winnable games do you see there? Two? Three? Four? For me, this is the stretch of the season that will cement the tank. For those of you who have followed along from the beginning of the season, I had predicted Toronto to be around 15-35 at the 50-game mark.
Even if the Raptors win all three remaining games in January to close out the month, that puts them at 16-32. If they, optimistically, go 5-9 over the stretch of games above, you’re back to 20 games below .500 in what would be considered a best case scenario.
Considering the quality of the draft class, it would be malpractice to try and win in the final 20 games sitting that far below .500. Compete often like you did for so many of the “ethical losses” we’ve seen, but be strategic about the final result.
Bruce, Kelly, Davion, and CB Showing Out
Another interesting coincidence is that all four of the biggest trade candidates for the Raptors have played their best basketball over the last few weeks.
On the whole, Chris Boucher has been terrific this season whenever he’s got the opportunity. If there’s a contender I’d most like to see Boucher on, it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder.
They could use a wildcard off the bench, a big forward who can space the floor, and can probably amplify his defensive strengths and hide his weaknesses, too. I’m sure Boucher wouldn’t mind being on the same team as fellow Montreal man Luguentz Dort, either, not to mention MVP favourite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Kelly Olynyk left the first Hawks game with a calf tightness so we’ll see what his playing time looks like until the deadline or he’s moved. He showcased what he can still do the last few games and especially against the Orlando Magic. I do like the idea of Olynyk sticking around for the remainder of the season because, as I’ve alluded to in the past, I think there is important information to be gleaned from the core group playing with a stretch big to contrast with what we know and are still learning playing with a traditional big like Poeltl.
Bruce Brown is looking increasingly likely to be a vital chip in facilitating a Jimmy Butler trade. Davion Mitchell is playing really well but could be deemed expendable based on Jamal Shead’s effectiveness of late. Quickley is looking closer to a return so that’s a factor as well.
Sportsnet’s Michael Grange indicated that the best path back to tanking is likely gutting the bench production that’s currently on offer and it won’t be surprising to see ample playing time for the likes of Jonathan Mogbo and Ja’Kobe Walter after the trade deadline.