How remaining Raptors games without Barnes, Poeltl can still inform off-season

Quickley's playmaking, Barrett's defence, and plenty more can still be observed down the stretch

Needless to say, and not for the first time this season, the goalposts have shifted.

Scottie Barnes’ injury against the Golden State Warriors certainly put a dampener on the Raptors’ hopes for the remainder of the season. In 60 games, Barnes averaged 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.5 blocks and is the only player in the league to lead his team in each of those five statistical categories. Notably, he improved his three-point shooting from 28.1% last season to 34.1% this season.

Heading into Sunday’s game against Charlotte, Toronto had been outscored by 17.8 points per-100 possessions in its previous 20 games with Barnes on the bench. In 20 games since the Pascal Siakam trade, Barnes averaged 19.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.6 blocks. Though his three-point shooting plumetted to 23.0%, his free-throw shooting improved to 84.2% on 4.8 attempts per game.

There was talk of the Play-In Tournament coming out of the All-Star break and the team’s play was backing it up with good effort and execution. The Raptors were 3-1 post the break and leading 57-55 with just under two minutes remaining in the second quarter against a much improved Golden State team until Barnes’ injury.

Despite beating the lowly and undermanned Charlotte Hornets, the injury to Jakob Poeltl along with the surgical route he’s taken as well as the following 41-point loss to New Orleans at home shows how difficult life could be down the stretch. That doesn’t mean there isn’t information to glean from the remaining games, though.

GM Bobby Webster said the priority was to see the young players play to better inform the off-season, and even if a bit watered down, that is still on the table. Here’s what I’m most intrigued to learn about the team over its final 20 games.

QUICKLEY’S PLAYMAKING

One of the best things to emerge out of the all-star break has been Immanuel Quickley’s change in intent when it comes to his scoring. He was a little too passive heading into the all-star break, perhaps still in the phase of not wanting to step on any toes as the new guy in town.

Before the break, Quickley averaged 13.7 field goal attempts in 20 games as a Raptor. Since, he has averaged 16.5 field goal attempts and it’s primarily his three-point shot that has increased volume from 6.4 to 9.2. His overall efficiency has actually increased and having that score-first mentality, I think, simplifies his decision-making and also creates better looks for his teammates because opponents have to be more cognizant of Quickley as a scorer.

While it’s important he maintains that intent, I’m curious to see how his playmaking looks in the absence of Barnes. We’ve already seen some of the ups and downs. In the second half of the game against the Warriors, Quickley shot 2-for-9 including 1-of-6 from three to go along with five assists. He seemed to struggle against the size of Moses Moody (6-foot-5 with 7-foot wingspan) and those types of matchups are worth monitoring going forward. Herbert Jones presented similar issues in the Pelicans game but Quickley found success when getting switched off him or matching up against the likes of CJ McCollum and Jose Alvarado.

The turnovers where he leaves his feet too early and forces himself into difficult jump passes is something he needs to improve his reading of the game in. That early gather is part of why he feels he is struggling to finish in and around the basket as well. As a Raptor, he shoots 61% at the rim which is in the 47th percentile for combo guards and 37% between 4-14ft. which is in the 31st percentile, per Cleaning the Glass.

Against Charlotte, while accepting the caveat that this team was missing LaMelo Ball and Nick Richards, what was encouraging about Quickley’s process was how much he looked to push the pace off a rebound or a make. The Raptors are an excellent transition team but struggle in the half-court. His ability to scamper down the court and put defences on their heels allowed for some early dribble penetration that created good looks from three.

Against New Orleans, the Pelicans seemed focused on discouraging the drive and went under screens, conceding several pull-up opportunities. Quickley did finish with seven assists in the game, but not one of them came off a paint touch. That’s taking the Raptors away from what they want to do. Finding that balance between punishing a defence for giving up space but staying in attack mode and still getting paint touches is a tricky one.

What can this help inform? Head coach Darko Rajakovic should have a better idea of when the ball should go to whom for next season. Yes, the stated goal is a 0.5 offence with plenty of ball and player movement but — particularly in the half-court — understanding to the best possible degree how much of the offence should funnel through Barnes, Quickley, RJ Barrett, Poeltl, and Kelly Olynyk based on the opposing defensive schemes can be understood better over the remaining 20 games.

It can also inform the type of backup guard that is best suited to play behind Quickley. As things stand, I lean towards someone offering a bit more size and is capable of defending both guard positions. The extent of this backup’s playmaking chops? That’s another thing the next 20 games can help inform.

BARRETT’S DEFENCE

It is hard to look at anything RJ Barrett has done in a Raptors uniform and come away asking for more. Through 24 games with Toronto now, Barrett is averaging 20.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.9 assists while shooting 60.9% on twos, and 41.5% on threes (38% above the break and 47% from the corners). His decision-making looks completely foreign to the player he was in New York (welcome home!) and the offence is accentuating his strengths by consistently putting him in positions where he can attack with a head of steam going to his left.

One bone to pick offensively is at the free-throw line where Barrett’s at 59% as a Raptor after shooting 83.1% in 26 games for New York prior. He is an unflattering 71% at the line for his career, and that’s something that needs to change in order to maximize his battering ram drives to the basket.

All that said, the biggest thing I’ll be watching with Barrett the rest of the way is his defence.

Barrett’s ability to be a good on-ball defender on the perimeter is a crucial measure of his long-term fit by default. Barnes’ best strength defensively is in the backline and not defending on the perimeter. While he’s improved at the latter and can hold his own against like-for-like matchups, his lateral quickness still makes that a sore spot relative to his excellence in other areas defensively. Though a good team defender, Quickley has not proven to be a plus on-ball defender. So, as currently constituted, that’s two players who aren’t ideal on-ball perimeter defenders, and Poeltl who will be protecting the rim.

The results have been underwhelming thus far, but Barrett has the physical make-up to be a better defender. For this core, he needs to be.

AGBAJI’S PROTOTYPE IN THE STARTING LINEUP

Extending these defensive thoughts, if Barnes, Quickley, and Barrett are the long-term core and their respective defensive strengths and weaknesses remain largely the same, the fourth player that slots in is absolutely going to have to be a legitimate perimeter defender considering the fifth player is a big man.

Look down the Raptors roster and the best option in that regard currently is Ochai Agbaji. I think he’s a plus defender but is still a ways away from being an elite defender. Contrary to some of what I’ve seen online, I do think his cutting, rebounding, and general positioning shows a good understanding of the game.

Is he an NBA-level starter? Not at present, and not as long as he’s shooting under 30% on non-corner threes. He shoots a very healthy 45.3% on corner threes for his career but a putrid 26.5% on threes from above the break. That has to change, but I think there’s enough there to try and find out if it can. His three-point shooting in Kansas progressed from 30.7% on 3.4 attempts in his first year to 33.8% in his second, 37.7% in his third, and 40.7% on 6.5 attempts in his fourth. I also like that he’s done a full four years of college and fits the Norman Powell/Fred VanVleet mold in that regard. I’m a fan.

The idea of him starting when Barnes and Poeltl were healthy was appealing to me because it could help accentuate what he does well while minimizing the need for him to shoot above the break threes or create off the dribble. Those are his two biggest weaknesses presently. Even if he’s not the long-term option, evaluating his prototype’s fit alongside the current starting group can provide valuable insight.

On that note, I’m going to quickly address the 20 shots he took against Charlotte as that was something that seemed to frustrate some fans. I think there’s a big difference between a Rudy Gay 6-for-20 game and that general shot diet than what happened with Agbaji.

If you actually break it down, there were only four shots that you’d want Agbaji to take back. He went 0-for-3 on offensive putbacks (on a great overall rebounding night) and 0-for-1 on a baseline out of bounds play where he really should have finished better. These weren’t really forced shots and he was also 0-for-4 on corner threes where I’ve already detailed his general NBA success from. I thought he graded himself quite accurately after the game, saying it was a “C” performance but if some of those open shots went down it’d probably be a “B+” or “A-”. Essentially, the process was very good even if the results were middling.

In the video below, you can listen to his assessment as well as watch seven misses I’ve highlighted that came off largely good process:

Bonus points to Agbaji for wearing a soccer jersey (Sporting Kansas City in this case) but Toronto FC needs to fix this and send him a TFC jersey ASAP. Here’s hoping the knee soreness that forced his exit from the Pelicans game was precautionary in a blowout.

KELLY IN THE MIDDLE

Olynyk alongside Barnes in bench units was probably where there was most to learn. The theoretical fit of Barnes with a spacing big with limited rim protection can still be functional because of Barnes’ ability to protect the rim. As we saw against New Orleans and will likely see more of against very good teams, the defence is now extremely compromised in the absence of Barnes and Poeltl.

There are going to be stretches where Olynyk will play alongside Quickley + bench or Barrett + bench and I definitely think there’s value in seeing what that looks like. In fact, with the team firmly in wins and lessons mode, it may even be worth considering having Olynyk sub out early to come back in with bench units and assess those minutes.

From a Canadian perspective, the more minutes Olynyk and Barrett play together before the Olympics, the better.

For the most part, this is probably one player with whom future roster assessments are best made in the presence of Barnes and Poeltl. One thing that is easy to see is, in the absence of Poeltl and the general lack of ability to contain the dribble, the Raptors probably need more of an inside presence and rim protector as the third big on the roster as opposed to Jontay Porter. I like Porter as a player, but his value is diminished by the presence of Olynyk.

DICK’S PROGRESSION

Last but not least, I’m glad I didn’t sell any of my Gradey Dick stock. He always came across as a smart, well-adjusted person as well as more than a shooter as a basketball player.

You can see he’s made a leap in terms of adjusting to NBA pace and the reads he’s making as a result are excellent. The shooting coming around is probably overdue considering his resume coming in and it’s amazing to see how much he provides with his movement off the ball and get good shots off regardless of the extent of his body’s momentum leading up to the shot. He shot 40% from three on three attempts per game in January and made 49% of his 4.1 three-point attempts per game in February.

In conversations with both Dick and his parents, he took his Raptors 905 assignment in exactly the right spirit and understood what it was about. With this organization, it’s not about getting demoted but rather maximizing the opportunity to play, learn, and grow. They were also well aware of the possibility coming into the season and so not having that shock factor when it happened probably helped. The special program Rajakovic put him on has clearly paid some dividends and it was also nice to see him get some recognition as a February Rookie of the Month nominee.

A strong month-and-a-half to close here and there may be an All-Rookie Second Team appearance to look forward to. For those wondering, the new 65-game rule doesn’t apply to Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, or All-Rookie teams.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Feel free to comment on what you’re looking forward to most over the final 20 games of the season or any questions you may have in general. Have a great rest of the week!