Takeaways: Raptors @ Hornets, Oct. 30

Dick, Barrett, Shead were all outstanding in leading a spirited fightback

The bad news came early in the shape of Scottie Barnes being ruled out for at least three weeks with a right orbital fracture, and despite a spirited fightback after trailing by as many as 23, the night ended with bad news, too, as Toronto fell to Charlotte 138-133 (good news for those with a tanking agenda).

Charlotte raced out to a 9-0 lead before the Raptors fought back to tie the game at 13. From there, it was one Hornet sting after another courtesy a 22-3 run that could have put the contest to bed. Instead, Toronto battled back with some inspired scoring from Gradey Dick as well as some excellent playmaking from both RJ Barrett and Jamal Shead and cut the deficit to five by halftime.

An end of third quarter blip gave the Hornets a double-digit advantage, one that they didn’t relinquish.

The Hornets bench racked up 72 points to the Raptors’ 30, Terrence Mann and Cody Martin proving instrumental as they combined for 52. The other big number that proved decisive in this one was the three-point shooting, Charlotte finishing the night a plus-33 from beyond the arc and just about edging out the 80-48 advantage the Raptors created in scoring in the paint.

Here are the game’s takeaways:

Fun to be had even in absence of Barnes

Despite things looking ugly midway through the second quarter as the Hornets led by 23, the the excitement of watching the young players try to figure things out and the fighting spirit this team continues to show after home opener debacle is plenty to root for in a season where winning was always expected to take a backseat.

Whether it was Gradey Dick scoring a career-high 30, Jonathan Mogbo getting the start in the absence of Scottie Barnes and continuing to show strong flashes, Jamal Shead’s playmaking, or Ochai Agbaji continuing to show his offensive growth, there is just so much to appreciate about the young guys that the games being competitive is a bonus. Heck, it’s easy to forget that R.J. Barrett is the same age as Agbaji and absolutely qualifies as a young guy.

Now, it’s worth noting that Charlotte doesn’t play a disciplined brand of basketball and that contributed to the opportunity for the Raptors to fight back. Bigger tests await against teams with playoff pedigree.

Dick’s driving ability indicative of major leap

Coming into this season, the main attribute that many wanted to see Gradey Dick add to his game was quality above-the-break 3-point shooting. We know he has good basketball sense and is more than just a shooter, but no one expected the leap he’s made with his driving ability.

Dick’s shooting ability is being respected a great deal, and he’s using it to size defenders up perfectly. Close out extremely hard and he’ll shot fake and side step you for a three. Be a little late in closing out but stay on your feet? He’s by you in a flash. The variety when he gets by you stands out. Depending on how the rest of the defence is set, Dick is either pulling up from the mid-range or taking it all the way to the bucket for an array of finishing moves.

In the early season, Dick is shooting an excellent 67% on shots between 4-14ft. and making it all the more difficult for defenders to predict what he might do. Against Charlotte, he had one finish where he leapt off the wrong foot and another where he put some perfect reverse side spin finishing with his right on the left side of the basket.

We saw a career-high 30 points on 17 shots this night and there’s reason to believe he could eclipse that in November. Coming into the season, the expectation was that Dick might average 12-13 points per game as a starter. He’s at 18.8 right now, and his scoring package just looks tremendous for this stage of his career.

Point guards combine for 20 assists

For the second straight game, both Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead combined to have good games.

Mitchell is far from a natural playmaker, but Darko Rajakovic’s offence is built for racking up assists. If you can push the pace for easy transition opportunities and find Jakob Poeltl in the pick-and-roll, you’ll have yourself a good day.

Shead, on the other hand, is a natural playmaker and gets into the paint at will. He’s got good zip to his drives and so creates more of those opportunities where teammates just have to shoot the ball and generally not have to dribble or still attempt to create additional separation.

Immanuel Quickley was ruled out after initially being listed as doubtful, increasing the optimism that he could return to action as early as Friday against the Lakers. Saturday against the Kings does seem the more likely option owing to the back-to-back scenario.

Barrett can facilitate, too

We know R.J. Barrett can score the basketball. What we started to see during his time in Toronto last year is that he can score the ball efficiently. This season is a big one in terms of proving that shooting 60% on twos and 39% on threes wasn’t a fluke.

Perhaps more quietly, Barrett racked up 4.1 assists per game as a Raptors last season as well, which was a significant improvement considering he averaged under three per game for his career. He had seven assists in the first half of this game, and that’s an important development you want to see for a player who is learning to toggle between scorer and facilitator.

The fact that Barrett was able to drop 31 points efficiently while still collecting eight assists in the absence of Barnes and Quickley was a good sign moving forward. The trick is in repeating it.

Barnes injury makes for daunting month ahead

On Wednesday, the Raptors confirmed that Barnes suffered a right orbital fracture and that the result would be him missing at least the next three weeks before being evaluated. Below are the games he’s slated to miss, at a minimum (having already missed this Hornets game):

Nov. 1 vs. Lakers, Nov. 2 vs. Kings
Nov. 4 @ Nuggets, Nov. 6 @ Kings, Nov. 9 @ Clippers, Nov. 10 @ Lakers
Nov. 12 @ Bucks, vs. Pistons, Nov. 16 @ Celtics, Nov. 18 @ Pacers

While the games aren’t played on paper, Toronto will — at least in terms of odds makers — be favoured to win just one of those 10 games. At 1-4, we could be looking at a team 8-10 games below .500 in the overly optimistic scenario that Barnes returns on Nov. 21 against Minnesota.

In my estimation, a more realistic return date is Dec. 1, when the Raptors begin a seven-game homestand. I say this because I’d expect that, when he’s evaluated in three weeks time, he’ll then need a week or so of ramping up as well as potentially getting fitted for a mask and getting accustomed to playing with it in practice. If that were to be the case, he’d also miss some if not all of the following games:

Nov. 21 vs. Wolves, Nov. 24 @ Cavaliers
Nov. 25 @ Pistons, Nov. 27 @ Pelicans, Nov. 29 @ Heat

In this scenario, you’re looking at the Raptors possibly being closer to 12-15 games under .500. It’s not about the wins this season, but it will be interesting to see how the stars of this team handle possibly being so far back in the standings so early.

From a developmental standpoint, this does extend the time Jonathan Mogbo now spends with the parent club as his services are now essential. The 905 will begin its season on Nov. 9, but Mogbo will have to hang around with the Raptors for at least a couple weeks longer. Plays like this eurostep and finish with the left could keep him around even longer:

NOTES

• Jakob Poeltl was really good once again, racking up 20 points and 16 rebounds in 35 minutes of action. His push shots and hook shots have been hit and miss to start the season but money the last couple games.

• Jamison Battle couldn’t get going in this one, finishing scoreless in 14 minutes.

• Chris Boucher had a very analytically friendly game, finishing with four dunks, a layup, and a three-pointer for his 13 points in 17 minutes.