What Brandon Ingram trade and contract tells us about Raptors' future
A three-year, $120M deal hits the sweet spot for both player and team
Good news, you don’t have to stress about the Raptors potentially losing Brandon Ingram in free agency anymore!
This is a bit of a longer post than usual but you also have the entire All-Star break now to read it so I figured, in the words of the illustrious Russell Westbrook, why not?
Toronto has re-signed the 27-year-old to a three-year extension worth $120M. The final year (2027-28) is a player option. He will be 28 at the start of next season.
It is an escalating deal, meaning Ingram is expected to earn $38M in 2025-26, $40M in 2026-27, and $42M in 2027-28. As mentioned in the previous post, the Raptors would not have surrendered a first-round pick without having confidence in re-signing him.
Where do I stand on the money?
Let’s start with the fact that the maximum Ingram was eligible for if he waited until free agency hit July 1st would have been five years and nearly $270M ($54M average annually). Toronto would not have traded for him if that’s what he was seeking or believed he could get in the open market. Per NBA insider Marc Stein, Ingram had previously declined an offer of four years and $160M from the Pelicans.
The highest salary he may have realistically been looking at from a team with cap space was probably closer to four years, $180M ($45M average annually). The Raptors, by virtue of having acquired his Bird rights, were the only team that could have offered a fifth year.
Any contract agreement with the Raptors prior to July 1st would have made him eligible for a maximum of three years and $144M ($48M annually). Ingram waived his trade bonus which then brought that max down to $136M ($45.3M annually). I had anticipated the Raptors agreeing a deal in the neighbourhood of three years, $130M and so to net out at $120M seems like a win.
A super max contract accounts for 35% of the cap, a regular max at 30%. Ingram’s contract will account for about 25%, which is pretty fair value for his talent level.
Let’s also remember the Raptors would not have had the cap space to sign him outright in free agency. That’s why Masai Ujiri has spoken of the importance of “pre-agency.”
From Ingram’s perspective, he has two years to not only see how the Toronto fit works out but show he’s worthy of a raise in a higher cap environment a couple seasons from now. While the 2025-26 salary cap is expected to be around $154.6M, the cap in 2027-28 will be in and around $187M.
OK, now that we’ve covered the money. Let’s get into some of the big picture stuff the trade for and re-signing of Ingram implies, at least in my eyes:
Front Office Believe In Barnes’ Growth This Season
Some of the analysis breaking down the trade has questioned whether acquiring a player of Ingram’s calibre has come a year or two too soon. That there may have been more value in keeping the 2026 Pacers pick.
For me, the front office doesn’t make this move if it hasn’t been happy with the progress Barnes has made this season. He defence is All-Defensive Team calibre, his playmaking has been very good, as has his overall leadership. His mid-range jumper has taken an important step forward. His overall offensive process needs to be better, and it’s fair to believe he just might not have a dependable 3-point shot in him (shooting 26.6% this season on 5.1 attempts per game).
I sometimes get asked the question if Barnes is truly a 1A franchise player. My response to that is you don’t necessarily have to be a 1A scorer to be that. It’s more rare, to be sure, but the Jason Kidds and Magic Johnsons of the world do exist.
The other part of this equation is showing your franchise player that you aren’t sitting back and taking him for granted. It was only a couple years ago that the Dallas Mavericks were scrambling to keep Luka Doncic happy and landed Kyrie Irving on a buy low deal. Crazy how that turned out. You could argue the Cleveland Cavaliers went for Donovan Mitchell before Evan Mobley was truly “ready.” Not many would have seen Rudy Gobert as the ideal third man next to Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns but that proved very successful and probably helped them accelerate their compete level.
Barnes can’t have major complaints about the way this organization has prioritized him and looked to rebuild around his player profile. Now, the challenge is on him to keep pushing.
Need For Clutch ‘Guy’ Accepted And Identified
In recognizing Barnes’ strengths enough to believe in accelerating the rebuild next season, the Raptors also appear to have seen the need to mitigate his weaknesses. Allow him to be who he most naturally is.
GM Bobby Webster put it as simply as he could when asked about the fit between Barnes and Ingram, saying, “Scottie wants to share the ball, Brandon wants to score the ball.”
I’ve highlighted Ingram’s efficiency from the mid-range in the previous post. One of the biggest things that made me a believer in Ingram was his 2022 playoff performance against the Phoenix Suns in the first round. If you haven’t already, go watch YouTube and see how easy he made it look in that type of environment against a team that was coming off an NBA Finals appearance. He was arguably the biggest reason the Pelicans pushed that series to six games.
Another narrative in the discourse is debating if it was better to just keep Pascal Siakam?
Siakam has a higher defensive ceiling and more positional versatility on that end of the floor. The playmaking skills are comparable. In fact, I think the general discourse is underrating Ingram’s playmaking and unselfishness. It’s possible people just haven’t watched him enough. Ingram has historically been the better three-point shooter though Siakam has had the higher percentage this season but on lesser per game volume. There is more pull-up three juice to Ingram than Siakam.
Who’s more clutch? Over the last three seasons (including this season), Ingram has shot 49-for-98 (50%) in the clutch and Siakam has gone 64-for-138 (46.4%). An X-Factor in this is that Siakam has gone 30-for-45 at the free-throw line in these scenarios (games within five points with less than five minutes remaining) while Ingram has gone 35-for-39.
If you’re into player rankings, entering this season, The Ringer had Siakam 38th to Ingram’s 65th. ESPN had Ingram 40th and Siakam 42nd (Ingram was 27th the season prior). CBS had Ingram 50th and Siakam 33rd. I think the gap between the two players is closer to ESPN’s assessment than The Ringer or CBS. I also believe Ingram should present a better fit on the Raptors. I think the likes of CBS and The Ringer are victims of what Ingram spoke about at his intro presser.
“I’ve been NOT talked about a lot. I’ve been injured a little so I’ve been forgotten a little bit. I feel like coming to Toronto I have a good chance to sprout.”
Let’s also remember that the debate here isn’t just Siakam vs. Ingram. It’s starting next season with a 31-year-old Siakam vs. 28-year-old Ingram + 25-year-old Agbaji + 21-year-old Walter.
I’m a big fan of Siakam and was not happy with how the end of his Raptors tenure was handled. With all that has materialized since, I think the Raptors have recovered very well. The belief that the Raptors were better off trading him earlier in his contract or after re-signing him to an extension versus what has in fact played out since has at least been made debatable.
Cap Crunch Will Force At Least One Starter Out
The Raptors will have a lot of money committed to its starting five. In 2025-26, that amount stands at $156.5M committed to Ingram, Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl.
Approximately $20.8M will be allocated to Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo, Jamal Shead, and Jamison Battle. Landing a top five pick will cost somewhere between $9-15M in salary. That’s 12 players taking the Raptors close to or above the luxury tax figure of nearly $188M with three more roster spots still to fill out. What happens with Chris Boucher remains to be seen.
This is where the question of turning one of those starters into a couple players enters the equation. Who? The obvious answer is RJ Barrett. His playmaking has certainly grown this season but it was more important for him to show progress on the defensive end. But for some glimpses, that hasn’t happened.
Barrett is owed slightly in excess of $57M over the next two seasons and is extension eligible this summer. His position is also where the Raptors have the most depth, from Dick to Walter to Agbaji.
Quickley is arguably the closest to Barrett in terms of being an overpay with his five-year, $175M deal that began this season. He is also in a relative position of safety because of the dynamic 3-point shooting ability he provides on a team desperately lacking that skill and the relative depth at the point guard position.
Poeltl is in a similar safe zone because of the depth at centre behind him.
I imagine the Raptors will hold exploratory talks with Barrett regarding an extension this summer, but will lean in favour of a team-friendly deal and leave little room to budge. If an agreement can’t be reached, that’ll be another step closer to moving on from Barrett. Dick becomes eligible for an extension in the summer of 2026 and so there’s a calculus in lining up well financially for that.
“Obviously, we’ve projected it out,” GM Bobby Webster said at the Ingram introduction. “I think there’s probably a scenario depending on where our draft pick is [where the finances become complicated], but we feel comfortable with the flexibility we’ve had. It’s been sort of the feature of this rebuild which is to have this flexibility and to be able to do a deal like this and take on Brandon but also give him a substantial contract.”
Worth remembering here is that you only need to be under the tax by the very end of the season to avoid tax penalties.
Young Bench Will Dictate Team’s Floor
With the money that’s committed at the top, Toronto appears dead set on a very young bench that has shown flashes this season. It’s going to make for some really fun moments but there will be times where frustrating mistakes will be made and patience will be a virtue for viewers.
Fans are ready to see Bench Mob 2.0 and that’ll be the hope. Gradey Dick as a sixth man — barring a trade — is intriguing. It will be interesting to see how Darko Rajakovic juggles the different prototypes he has at the shooting guard/small forward position between Ingram, Barrett, Dick, Agbaji, and Walter.
Are the Raptors going to be comfortable with Jonathan Mogbo as the full-time backup five? They may have to be. Jamal Shead as the full-time backup point guard? It’s a pretty guard heavy draft so we may have to wait on that one.
Darko Ball Ready For Serious Evaluation
Rajakovic’s first season as head coach was tumultuous to say the least. He coached four different iterations of a roster in 2023-24 had little to be judged upon other than taking away selfishness from the offence.
This season has been about development and instilling some of his defensive principles and on those measurables — especially development — it’s been a success.
In 2025-26, the really hard part begins. Can the Raptors go from bad to good? Can the transition from a no pressure tank to a pressure filled evaluation up and down the roster be handled with care? Will the defence take a real step forward? Will the challenges improve?
In simpler terms, Rajakovic will be under the microscope next season. He will either push people towards thinking he was a necessity of the rebuild or an emerging hot property in coaching circles.
Next season is the start of learning hard truths and that excites me. That first playoff season (hopefully) of a new era is always so exciting and there is very little to hate on if you get there. It was particularly enjoyable in the We The North era because of the found gold after the Rudy Gay trade but I really enjoyed the Chris Bosh-led first run to the playoffs, too. Rooting for guys like Anthony Parker, Jorge Garbajosa (that Nets series could’ve been different if he was there!), and the tandem of T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon was really fun.
The 30th anniversary has brought back fond memories of Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady leading the way for the franchise’s first-ever playoff run. Even with a 3-0 first round sweep, there was plenty of optimism.
It’s the reward in waiting for all that’s transpired the last two seasons.
Notes
The Raptors got hammered 131-108 by Cleveland, dropping to 17-38 on the season. I think it’s going to be very difficult to catch any of the Wizards, Pelicans, Jazz, or Hornets the rest of the way so hanging on to the fifth best odds looks a best case scenario in terms of ping pong balls. Brooklyn, crucially, has won three in a row to improve to 20-34. Hopefully this will be one last favour from Jordi Fernandez for Canada.
Tristan Thompson made a fool of himself (again) by dunking in the final seconds of the Cavs’ blowout win. Shead and Scottie Barnes took issue with Thompson after the final buzzer and tensions were heated for a moment. It was good to see that leadership. Rajakovic called it “classless” after the game. Even teammate Donovan Mitchell seemed embarrassed by his teammate’s actions.
For those of you who still worry about the negative stigma Americans feel towards Canada, you can’t count Ingram in that list. He was effusive in his praise of Toronto as a city and — as little as his facial expressions may give away — seems genuinely thrilled to be here.
“At the beginning of the year, every time the schedule comes out, the first team we mark is Toronto. I don’t think it’s ever for the team, it’s always for the city. I just knew I needed a fresh start, a fresh start somewhere where guys played hard and listen. I heard good things about Scottie and good things about Quickley. I thought it was a good fit offensively and defensively, Darko had a play in that, too.”
Thanks for reading! Feel free to hit me with whatever questions you may have that I could answer in future posts :)