What The Tank Is Going On?
It's a race to the bottom between the Sixers, Nets, and Raptors
Hey all!
Apologies for the delay between posts. I was away in Bali on a family vacation and it’s been a journey getting readjusted to the 13-hour time difference and juggling my regular work.
Before we get into the drag that is the tank, let’s focus on the good.
The three big stars in Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett have all had impressive performances. Jamal Shead is increasingly showing he’s ready for the full-time backup point guard role, and Darko Rajakovic looks in his element trying to get the most out of players staking their NBA claim.
How about A.J. Lawson, though? It’s been amazing to watch the Brampton native showcase his skills in a Raptors uniform. He teased his potential with 13 points in a win over Orlando on March 2nd, and just erupted for 32 points (including seven triples!) and 12 rebounds against Washington.
Lawson’s got a great competitive spirit about him but we’ll have to see where the 3-point shooting nets out. Over the last four games, he’s had a couple games where’s combined to shoot 10-for-18 and another couple where he’s shot 2-for-16.
Now, let’s get into this tanking business.
Disclaimer: It is not fun to talk about losing as an important thing but that is the reality this team faces right now. I look forward to the Raptors having more ethical goals in 2025-26.
Raptors Miss Their Chance To Lay Anchor?
Things have gotten extremely tight with the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets. The game against the Sixers on Wednesday now looks crucial in tank watch. The Raptors are 22-43, the Sixers are 22-42, and the Nets are 22-42.
Winning both games in Atlanta on Jan. 23rd and 25th and more recently both games in Orlando on Mar. 2nd and 4th are games the Raptors could look back on with some regret if they can’t finish what they started here.
It’s been a bit puzzling to see how the Raptors have tried to toe the line of competing and not, the most egregious being the end of the second game in Orlando when all the starters were benched down the stretch. Ja’Kobe Walter’s shot to win the game and Lawson’s big shots late were awesome in the moment.
Walter’s shot has a similar vibe to Morris Peterson’s miracle shot against the Washington Wizards in 2007, though. It’s a fond memory in Raptors history but it’s also a shot that effectively made Toronto play Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and the New Jersey Nets in the first round of the playoffs instead of a Wizards team without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler.
Nothing against how fun that Walter ending was, but the Raptors had things that could have been done earlier to ensure it didn’t come down to that shot.
Masai Ujiri said this was a rebuilding season. Losing 16 of 17 games between December and January made it very clear what this season was about. Bobby Webster saying there would come a time to pray to lottery gods made it clearer still what the final stretch should entail. To not finish the job from here would be an organizational failure.
SOS Within Strength Of Shedule
The Raptors have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the league with an opponent win percentage of .382 over the 17 remaining games. That includes four crucial games against the Sixers twice and Nets twice.
What strength of schedule doesn’t account for is home court advantage. I do find this to be a considerable weakness down the stretch, especially when considering the Raptors will play eight of 10 games on the road following Wednesday’s home clash with Philadelphia.
Playing Portland on the road is a perfect example why. They sit at 28-38 and so would represent a fairly weak team on the surface. However, they are 16-15 at home compared to 12-23 on the road. This is a tougher game than it appears.
Toronto themselves are a more respectable 15-20 at home relative to its 7-23 record on the road.
Of course, injuries will play a big factor down the strech, too. San Antonio and Dallas are the two final games of the season. Both those teams have lost their lustre because of injuries. The Spurs are without Victor Wembanyama while De’Aaron Fox seems set for surgery. The Mavs are without Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis.
All this to say, it will be difficult to maintain the fifth-best odds and the Raptors will have to get pretty unethical to do so. Are they willing to go that far? We’ll have to wait and see.
What’s At Stake Between 5th - 7th In Lottery Odds
What’s the big deal about this race between fifth and seventh? In terms of the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, not so much. The team with the fifth-best odds will have a 10.5 percent chance at the top pick compared to 8.3 percent at sixth and 8.2 percent at seventh.
Where this race becomes significant is the odds of picking in the top four. The team with the fifth-best odds will have a 42.1 percent chance of picking in the top four while sixth drops down to 34.8 percent and seventh 34.5 percent. Though Flagg is the grand prize, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, and VJ Edgecombe are all tantalizing prospects with all-star potential.
When the Raptors were 8-31, the Nets were 14-26. The Sixers were 19-27 as recently as the end of January. Letting them finish with better lottery odds should leave us all asking, ‘What was all the losing for?’