What to expect of healthy Raptors
Harsh truths or exciting possibilities could be on the way this next stretch
I could have done another takeaways style piece but thought better of it.
With another blowout loss, I felt it’d be more impactful to talk about things I’m expecting and hoping to learn about the Raptors now that the team is finally healthy.
With one game of Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Jakob Poeltl in the books, here are the five main things I’m looking for however long this group can stay healthy:
Scottie + IQ chemistry must become fulcrum of offence
The franchise has invested most of its money into these two and it is imperative they show great chemistry together.
They have to become the heart and soul of the offence, the conductors of the symphony, the engine of the car. Respectfully, Quickley and Poeltl pick-and-rolls are great, so are Barrett curl actions, but you did not pay Barnes and Quickley to be lesser than those options. Not if you have aspirations of being a great team one day, anyway.
Below is a good example of Barnes and Quickley working well together. After dribbling to the right corner, Quickley passes the ball to Barnes at the elbow and screen Gary Trent Jr. to create a lane to the basket. Bobby Portis also ends up getting screened out and the result is a layup for Barnes.
Now, below are also a couple of examples of how Barnes can be effective and involved when Quickley and Poeltl are operating together. Unsurprisingly, both plays feature Barnes finishing at the basket.
We’ve seen in the time Quickley has played with Poeltl, and in the Bucks game, a very natural flow to how those two operate. In those moments, Barnes genuinely looks out of place. Quickley’s first instinct has to genuinely become running actions with Barnes and Darko Rajakovic has to force feed that right now to help get them there eventually.
Defensive viability of Quickley, Dick, Barrett
I must admit, I’m not optimistic about this one.
There have been so many defensive lapses from Barrett and Dick that it is a long, winding road to even being net neutral defenders. Dick has the advantage of being three years younger and a body that’s yet to fill out. Barrett has shown flashes defending 1-on-1 but hasn’t proven himself capable yet of consistently executing team defensive concepts.
When you factor Dick’s outside shooting threat and his relative lack of necessary usage to be effective, it makes this upcoming stretch a crucial one for Barrett to improve his defensive acumen. Yes, his ability to get into the paint incredibly valuable to this team, but his defence can’t keep negating it as it does now.
There’s no elite ceiling with 2-3 net negative defenders in the starting five and you can’t be both a bad wing defender in this league and make 3-pointers at a mediocre clip (The poor free-throw shooting doesn’t help, either). So, who becomes the odd one out?
Either way, Quickley, Barrett, and Dick all have to be better on the defensive side of the ball going forward.
Poeltl’s long-term fit
Another variable in this is Poelt’s effectiveness when Quickley and Barnes are involved in actions. He, too, seems a bit out of place in these moments and this is where the front office will have to assess if stretch big is perhaps more capable than what Poeltl brings to the table.
For example, it was hard to watch the Bucks and not think a Brook Lopez prototype would be an amazing big and a better fit next to Barnes and Quickley. That ability to space the floor, knock down triples as the trailer, and protect the rim at the other end would be phenomenal on the Raptors.
In tying the two points from above together, if Barrett and Barnes round out as mediocre 3-point shooters, it reduces the appeal of Poeltl because it’s difficult to operate as a modern-day offence with three non-volume 3-point threats on the court.
Poeltl has been a great leader this season, is efficient in the paint but offers little in terms of scoring beyond it. Teams are scoring 63% of their field goal attempts within six feet of the basket against him but a good chunk of that is also due to constantly having to put out fires around him. With the Spurs, that number hovered between 52-58%. Low fifties and below is elite.
Death by Three
As Quickley finds his feet, Dick gets back in a rhythm, and the team in general adjusts to their place in the rotation with the team healthy, I want to see how much this team can cut into its 3-point deficit.
The Raptors were outscored by 39 points at the 3-point line against the Bucks. They were outscored by 27 at the three-point line in the game prior against the Magic. In beating the Nets before that, they were a plus-15 beyond the arc.
Toronto is currently last in three-point differential on the season.
Quickley was a combined 2-for-14 from deep the last two games and there is a lot of pressure on him and Dick to get threes up for this team. Ochai Agbaji now has to do it coming off the bench. Kelly Olynyk needs to take the looks that come his way.
Think of the best teams in the league right now. Jrue Holiday is Boston’s worst outside shooter in the starting five and he’s a career 37% shooter and shot nearly 43% last season. Jarrett Allen is the only non-shooter in the Cavs’ starting five and Max Strus is getting closer to returning to the starting five in place of Isaac Okoro or Dean Wade (the two have taken turns in his place).
When healthy, Oklahoma City’s non-shooting threats are Isaiah Hartenstein and Cason Wallace. Both defend an elite level. New York currently has Josh Hart as its worst shooter in the starting five and he’s at 37% this season. You get the idea.
Darko’s defensive schemes, principles
What’s equally concerning right now is the three-point defence. Allowing 41 made threes and 88 attempts over the last two games is what needs to be the primary focus of Rajakovic’s film sessions.
The Bucks and Magic are 11th and 14th in three-point attempt frequency, respectively, they aren’t Boston and Minnesota. While the Bucks are second in three-point percentage, Orlando is dead-last and missing Paolo Banchero as well as Franz Wagner while Jalen Suggs left the game with back spasms near the end of the first half.
Plays like the ones to follow below are head scratchers for me. In the first play, Dick has to either commit the foul or show good discipline and get back on defence without trying to cheat. By doing neither, the Raptors are exposed in transition and the result if a wide open Caleb Houstan for three. Dick is prone to young mistakes but this is also partly because of the “ball pressure” Rajakovic wants this team to impose. There is more room to be solid and if we can see development from Dick on the offensive end, then we can expect more defensively as well.
In the second play, Jamal Shead does get impeded by a Goga Bitadze screen but is it really necessary for Ja’Kobe Walter to help completely off Houstan against Cory Joseph at this stage of his career? That’s scheme. In the final play, once again it appears the instruction is to help on screens and so Dick is helping Shead against Cole Anthony when there’s no need and Agbaji is stuck defending two on the swing pass.
Development is Rajakovic’s main KPI this season but establishing a defensive identity is on the list as well. This is his time to show he can do it. The games coming up are very difficult and so if you aren’t dotting your i’s and crossing your t’s on the defensive end, more blowouts are on the way.
At 20 games below .500 and going up against a murderer’s row of opponents, there’s ample room for Rajakovic to show this team can have better defensive structure while also continuing to lose.
Bring back the fun, competitive losses.