What To Make Of Darko Rajakovic's Season
Development, timeout usage, challenges, rants, diving into it all
A couple weeks ago, Sportsnet’s Michael Grange reported that the Toronto Raptors picked up the team option on head coach Darko Rajakovic to secure his services through the 2026-27 season. It’s interesting that it was done before the 2024-25 season even began and must have served as a great vote of confidence.
Rajakovic has been dealt a very difficult hand for any head coach, let alone one doing it at the NBA level for the first time. He’s had to deal with wholesale changes to the roster as well as injuries seemingly around the clock. This season has had a certain agenda he’s had to cater to as well.
The Serbian native has taken that vote of confidence and rewarded the faith the front office has shown. Now the real test will be how much confidence is shown after the 2025-26 season.
Heading into the final game of the season, this felt like a good time to look back on the season he’s had and why the Raptors believe he’s the right man for at least next season.
Development
This is the most significant measure of success for Rajakovic this season and he has passed it with flying colours.
As noted in my previous post, the Raptors reached a point of diminishing returns with overextended roles. What makes that a credit to Rajakovic is when we reached that point.
If Gradey Dick struggled to expand his game beyond the corner three then we would have reached a point of diminishing returns within the first 10 games of the season. With Agbaji, the same can be said if hadn’t hit corner threes at the rate he did. Those were the bare minimum expectations for those two players coming in.
Instead, we saw Dick show real layers to his offensive game and a repeatable process in getting open in a myriad of ways. Now, next season will be about adding shooting efficiency to his process. Agbaji progressed to making above the break threes and his ability to identify and attack gaps with the ball in his hands has improved significantly from last season. These are real leaps.
Obviously, the players themselves deserve the most credit for their respective improvement. To see virtually every player on the roster make strides shows the entire coaching staff is doing something that is worth mentioning and crediting.
If you’ve got the patience for it, Rajakovic did a Serbian interview recently on a show called ‘X&O’s Chat’ and shared a lot of insight into his influences, coaching style, and vision (subtitles are provided):
Clutch Performance and Timeout Usage
The trend that probably stood out the most through the first half of the season was Rajakovic having to call multiple timeouts early in an effort to stem the tide against his team.
Things got particularly dark when the Raptors lost 16 of 17 and the compete level fell off a cliff. The team not having the requisite energy at the start of games or second halves is not all on Rajakovic, NBA teams have lulls, young tanking teams have stretches where they lose their will. Throw in the injuries that have caused the lack of depth and dysfunctional lineups and it all adds up.
His after timeout plays have been quite good for the first three quarters, but there have certainly been questionable calls in crunch time.
The memory that stands out is the game against the Clippers in Los Angeles, when the ball was inbounded to Poeltl twice and allowed for a foul to be taken when the Raptors needed a three. Toronto is the third-worst crunch time team with a net rating of minus-15.0 and at least some of that comes down to choices Rajakovic has made.
If development was at the top of Rajakovic’s KPIs this season, the clutch offence and how Brandon Ingram is used in that regard will certainly be at or near the top of the list next season.
Defence
Halfway through the season, this was looking like a big miss for Rajakovic. The talk about ball pressure and “MIG” was looking like only that, talk. Fast forward to the second half of the season and there has been progress.
Since the all-star break, the Raptors have the second-best defensive rating behind only the Houston Rockets. They have been extremely aggressive on the ball and have also been second-best in forcing turnovers. By comparison, the Raptors defence ranked 24th until the break and they were 17th in forcing turnovers.
They were the league’s worst team in foul rate and they’re now out of the bottom five. It’s still a lot, but a whole lot easier to stomach when forcing as many turnovers as they have since the break.
Now, the strength of schedule needs to be kept in mind when evaluating the worth of this defensive rating. The Raptors have only played two teams that are in the top 10 in net rating since the all-star break and posted what would be the sixth-best defensive rating across those two games.
In a slightly bigger sample, Toronto has played teams ranked 11th to 20th in net rating seven times since the all-star break and their defence has ranked 16th in those games.
Offence
On the season, the Raptors rank 25th in offence at 110.5 points per-100 possessions (Cleveland Cavaliers rank first at 123.0 pp100).
The scary part is that Toronto ranks 27th against bottom 10 defences. If you can’t get it done against the worst defensive teams, there’s a problem.
The Raptors posted the third-best defensive rating against bottom-10 defences, so they have things going for them that should supplement the offence. They’re sixth in forcing turnovers and first in opponent effective field goal percentage so there’s plenty of misses to push the pace off, too.
For all the talk of Rajakovic’s egalitarian offence and ball movement, it hasn’t translated into results. Now, the biggest factor to consider here is the team has not had its best players healthy and playing together for much of the season. Even in this final stretch of the season where the Raptors have been winning games, Quickley and Poeltl have been regularly sitting.
Looking at the process, it’s easy to identify the Raptors’ structural offensive problems. They rank dead-last in non-corner threes attempt rate which is a big reason they rank 29th in three-point attempt frequency overall. They are about league-average in corner threes attempted.
They have the second-highest frequency for shots within four feet of the basket but rank 29th ahead of only the Charlotte Hornets in rim shooting percentage. There are three main culprits this season who are responsible here:
If you’re wondering why Dick is so much higher in his frequency percentile than Barnes despite a one percent difference, it’s because these numbers are relative to position. Dick is measured against other wing players while Barnes is measured against other forwards.
No prizes for guessing who leads the Raptors in this area. Poeltl takes 56 percent of his shots at the rim and finishes 74 percent of his attempts.
Brandon Ingram isn’t someone who gets to the rim a lot, but he’s very good when he gets there hovering around 72 percent over the last couple seasons.
Because we can look at the positive of the Raptors being able to create shots at the basket at a high frequency, we can look at individual players and target development in these areas for those players. Now, with Barrett it’s fair to ask if there is more juice to be squeezed, but you certainly expect more from Barnes and Dick.
The 3-point shooting really does come down to personnel. You’re not getting threes from Poeltl and you don’t expect much more from Barnes, either. How much does Quickley and Ingram playing 65-plus games next season change things?
How about off the bench? Shead has made strides from distance as the season has gone on but it would be unfair to expect significant volume with his playing style. The combination of Dick, Agbaji (?), and Walter will really have to fire away. Who will be the Raptors backup five? Will it be a stretch five who can contribute some threes?
Coach’s Challenge, Miscellaneous
There have been several egregious challenges by Rajakovic this season. I’m going to have to give him the benefit of the doubt and attribute it to “the agenda.”
Rajakovic started the season 14-19 on coach’s challenges and, if my math serves me correctly, he has gone 9-3 since.
I do think he’s shown too quick a trigger when Barnes wants a challenge. Some of the general coddling with Barnes has got to go, specifically with letting him shoot technical free-throws even when the likes of Gradey Dick and Immanuel Quickley have been on the court. He’s shot 76.9% at the line this season, he shouldn’t be an automatic choice.
Next year, the hierarchy should be Ingram, Quickley, and Dick. Maybe Barnes can be an option if none of them are on the court.