To lottery pick or not to lottery pick in 2024

Should the Raptors consider gaming its league standing to ensure the team has a shot at a top six pick in the 2024 draft?

How about a pizza party to come out of the all-star break?!

It’s been a refreshing restart for the Raptors with a hat-trick of wins, hoping to put a 4-11 record after the Pascal Siakam trade and some uninspiring play along the way firmly behind them.

All the while, there’s been an ongoing debate across the fan base over whether or not the team is better off conveying a first-round pick to San Antonio this year or next.

For those out of the loop, Toronto owes San Antonio a first-round pick between 2024-2026 as part of the Jakob Poeltl trade. The pick is protected 1-6 (meaning the Raptors keep the pick if it’s in the top six) and if not conveyed by 2026, will convert to two second round picks, one in 2026 and another in 2027.

GM Bobby Webster is of the opinion, at least when asked publicly by Sportsnet’s Michael Grange, that gaming to keep the Raptors’ first-round pick this year isn’t worth it because of how the lottery system has functioned since 2019. The priority is to see the new young core play together, get Gradey Dick mixed in with the BBQ core, and generally obtain as much pertinent information as possible to inform decision making in the off-season.

So, why does Webster feel it’s not worth it?

MAY THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOUR

Let’s start at the top and work our way down. Since the 2019 draft, the three worst records in the league have an equal shot at the top pick (14%) and landing in the top four (52.1%). The only added benefit of the worst record is that it guarantees picking no lower than fifth while second-worst is guaranteed no lower than sixth and third-worst is assured a draft position in the top seven.

From a Raptors perspective, there’s no catching the bottom five let alone the bottom three. Detroit (8-49), Washington (9-48), San Antonio (11-47), Charlotte (15-42), and Portland (15-41) will have the five best lottery odds having cemented their shoes to the floor.

Toronto (22-36) is currently sandwiched between Memphis (20-38) and Brooklyn (22-35) for the sixth, seventh, and eighth-worst record, respectively. This is what that entails draft lottery odds-wise:

For those who are on Team ‘Convey the pick,’ there’s a 45.8% chance of finishing inside the top six with the sixth-worst record but also a 50.3% chance of picking seventh or eighth. Finish with the seventh-worst record and there’s a 66.7% probability of picking 7-9. Finishing eighth-worst makes you much more susceptible to picking ninth. Funnily enough, through five years of this system, the odds have most been in favour of the team with the seventh-worst odds (relative to sixth or eighth):

Lucky number seven has provided a better average return than the fourth, fifth, or sixth best odds. It’s easy to look at this table and see Webster’s perspective.

Having the sixth best odds hasn’t historically favoured picking in the top six. In the five years since the odds were modified, the team with the sixth best odds has only picked inside the top six once. The team with the seventh best odds, though, has had a top-four pick four times including the top overall pick once.

In fact, you may have also noticed that the team with the worst record has yet to land the No. 1 pick in the new system, the second-worst record hasn’t nabbed the second pick, the third-worst record has yet to pick third, the fourth pick hasn’t gone to the team with the fourth-worst record, and the fifth-worst record hasn’t picked fifth either. The 9-14 range is where odds have mostly reflected the final draft position to this point. Of course, with lottery odds, past results won’t necessarily reflect the future.

On Webster’s side that a top-six pick isn’t worth gaming yet?

IS THE 2024 DRAFT EVEN WORTH IT?

Another part of the debate is the draft quality. By all accounts, the 2025 NBA Draft projects to have more high-end talent on offer than 2024. There isn’t a single generational talent expected to come out of this summer’s draft and team president Masai Ujiri has publicly flirted with completely disparaging this draft class.

“In every draft, there are players found,” Ujiri said to Sports Illustrated’s Aaron Rose when asked about the 2024 draft class. “I think in one of the worst drafts in NBA history, maybe, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert came of that draft. I believe in our team and what we do and I think we’ll make the best use of it. Are we going to take three picks in the draft? I strongly doubt it, that’s not the plan for now but I think we’ll make good use and scout it the best possible way we can.”

Note: The Raptors also hold Detroit’s second-round pick in the 2024 draft which currently projects to be 31st overall.

After the Siakam trade, the Raptors had the possibility of three first-round picks. The lottery pick that could go to the Spurs if outside the top six, the Pacers’ 2024 pick and another late first-rounder that has since been shipped to Utah in the deal for Kelly Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji.

Hearing the front office sound this pessimistic about the 2024 draft (I’m not going to pretend I have insights on the draft that are better than theirs) makes me lean towards conveying the pick this year and focusing on a 2025 class led by Cooper Flagg. While there are challenges in gaming to get into the top six, the odds if you have the eighth-worst record make it seem quite likely to land outside the top six. If you get into the top four from there, so be it.

Brooklyn is fading fast as losers of four of five and seven of nine. The two wins have come against fellow bottom feeders in San Antonio and Memphis. Staying worse than them will be a challenge, especially if the Raptors keep performing as they have during the three-game win streak.

How good will the Raptors be next season? Realistically, the current top six in the East (Boston, Cleveland, Milwaukee, New York, Philadelphia, Miami) should remain better than Toronto while I lean towards giving Indiana the edge for now. Orlando will need an off-season splash to take the next step but are within striking distance. Atlanta and Chicago could/should be worse along with Brooklyn. LaMelo Ball’s health is a concern in Charlotte, though the theory of him and Brandon Miller in the backcourt sounds promising. Washington and Detroit? They’re cellar dwellers until further notice.

The West is stacked this season and the conference could get even wilder next season with the Spurs possibly headed for a big summer to better complement Victor Wembanyama, Memphis reloading after a season ravaged by injuries and a 25-game suspension for Ja Morant, as well as Utah and Houston trending upwards as well.

Despite Toronto’s improved play of late, it’s conceivable that the team has a top-10 pick next season. Considering the relative strength of next year’s draft, that is not a season where you want the dark cloud of potentially conveying the pick to San Antonio to hang over the team.

Reminder: If the Raptors were to pick inside the top six in 2024, 2025, and 2026, San Antonio receives a second-round pick in 2026 and 2027.

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

That the Raptors have come out of the all-star break competing at a high level should be encouraged.

As this teams looks to re-establish a winning culture, the forming of good, consistent habits can’t be viewed in a negative light. I thought it was great that, despite a strong first half showing against Brooklyn, head coach Darko Rajakovic was willing to bench Gary Trent Jr. three minutes into the second half for some poor execution on both ends of the floor.

I also thought that it was great Trent Jr. took the benching in the right spirit and was ready to play when he checked back in and finished the game strong. This is the type of accountability on both sides that can make hard work, determination, and resilience a basic expectation of the team once again.

The compete level in Houston and New Orleans and even at home against San Antonio are hopefully firmly in the rearview. Wins and lessons is the theme but the best lessons can only be learned if the team is playing as hard and as close to the game plan as possible.

Playing with real gusto on the second night of a back-to-back in Atlanta and closing out the Pacers in Indiana despite losing Jakob Poeltl to injury are building block types of wins and culture setters.

Eat pizza, convey the pick.